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US-DRC SPA Intelligence Brief | 12 June 2026

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
 
The constitutional revision track advanced sharply this week with the National Assembly’s adoption of the referendum law on 9 June (348-2-1). The SPA remains in a post-ratification holding pattern with no public promulgation yet confirmed. Opposition mobilisation is underway but already showing fractures. Eastern security and the active Ebola outbreak continue to intersect with both the referendum timetable and SPA implementation. The coming Mining Week in Lubumbashi is the clearest near-term platform for concrete investment signalling.
 
1. Referendum Law 348-2-1.
 
The National Assembly adopted the proposition de loi portant organisation du référendum on 9 June 2026 by a vote of 348-2-1 in the near-total absence of opposition deputies. Key elements:
  • Establishes the procedural machinery for presidential convocation of a referendum and its organisation by the CENI.
  • Includes provisions for a constituante élargie (enlarged constituent assembly).
  • Appears structured to navigate or bypass core protections under Article 220 of the Constitution concerning fundamental principles and national sovereignty over resources.
Direct linkage to the early-June ordinance wave: Marcellin Basengezi Mukolo (previously sanctioned by the United States in 2019 in connection with CENI-related activities) was appointed Director General of the Office National de l’Identification de la Population (ONIP). Control of the national biometric ID and voter registry at this juncture is viewed as a critical enabling factor for any future referendum or electoral process.
 
2. SPA Promulgation Silence.
 
The Senate unanimously ratified the SPA/Washington Accords laws on 19 May 2026. Under the Constitution, the President has 15 days to promulgate. As of 12 June (ten days after the outer edge of that window), there has been no public promulgation, no Tier-1 confirmation from either side, and therefore no confirmed start date for the Article XII clock. The Joint Steering Committee framework established in February remains formally in place, but concrete follow-through on SAR project pipelines and qualifying strategic projects is on hold pending legal finalisation.
 
3. Opposition Fracture.
 
The anti-revision front is mobilising but already displaying coordination problems:
  • The planned 9 June nationwide action was scaled back or postponed in multiple locations.
  • Delly Sesanga has publicly criticised aspects of the current sequencing and tactics.
  • Prince Epenge held a sit-in on 12 June.
  • Reported clashes between Ejiba and Fayulu circles.
  • Pro-revision counter-mobilisation includes a petition drive led by Bakonga groups.
The C64/Article 64 coalition remains the broadest vehicle but is experiencing visible internal friction.
 
4. The “Se Maintenir” Cadence
 
Ruling-coalition consolidation measures continue in parallel with the referendum push:
  • Maintenance of a core quintet of ministers in strategic economic and security portfolios.
  • Continued use of IGF mechanisms under framework 118/200.
  • Ongoing SNEL-ZESCO power supply disruptions affecting key mining and industrial corridors.
These steps form part of a broader pattern of administrative and financial tightening ahead of the constitutional timeline.
 
5. Security and Provinces
 
Eastern and central instability remains a dominant operational overlay:
  • Ituri: Military governor Kasongo Mulumba is in place amid the active Ebola outbreak and persistent ADF activity around Beni.
  • Rubaya (North Kivu): Sustained coltan production at approximately 120 tonnes per month under de facto non-state control.
  • Haut-Lomami and Kasaï-Oriental: Continuing instability along mining corridors and local governance structures.
These dynamics directly affect logistics, due diligence, and responsible-sourcing requirements for both SPA-related and existing projects.
 
6. Fifth Model Pointer: The combination of fragmented territorial control in mineral-rich zones (Rubaya), parallel public-health crisis (Ebola), and hybrid economic activity under non-state actors constitutes the clearest current illustration of Fifth Model dynamics in the critical minerals sector.
 
Watch List
  • DRC Mining Week — 17–19 June 2026, Lubumbashi (pre-conference 16 June): primary near-term platform for SPA investment signalling.
  • XHKY window opens on 15 June.
  • Rubio mid-July window.
  • AVZ/Zijin milestone — 30 June.
  • Cairo accords follow-up.
  • ANAFEC / Haut-Katanga election-related processes.
  • Kabombwa 8 project marker.
  • Ebola day 25+ — epidemiological and operational inflection.
  • JSC late-June window — potential next formal coordination meeting.
Net Assessment: The constitutional/referendum machinery is now procedurally live while the SPA remains in a post-ratification holding pattern. Opposition unity is eroding even as mobilisation continues. Eastern security and the Ebola outbreak constitute the principal near-term risk overlay on both tracks. Mining Week next week is the clearest catalyst for concrete commercial movement under the SPA framework.