Alert level: Elevated on institutions and corridors. Not on signature theater.
The first published economics of the Dilolo-Sakania concession settle what the state gets. They leave open who pays for it, and that answer is written in a tariff nobody has seen.
Hours apart, on the same instrument, the two capitals described different corridors. Neither was wrong. The gap between their theories is where the politics of this railway will live.
President Tshisekedi did not send a mining engineer to fix Gécamines. He sent the EY partner who sat on the cell negotiating the US deal, and installed him at the state's most political company the moment Washington started asking where the copper goes. That tells you what the job actually is.
The World Bank counts a legal framework among its two conditions for reaching financial close on Inga 3. Congolese deputies threw out a Grand Inga law in 2018 on the ground that the country already had one, and nothing in the interval has answered them.
Katanga is short 2,000 MW. Angola has the surplus. The capital wiring the two together answers to Luanda and the Gulf, not to Washington's treaty.
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