US-DRC SPA Intelligence Brief | 16 October 2026
Kabila Took the Seat. Washington Used the Name.
FOMIN funds the flight. FOMIN is also written into the door fee on any deposit the flight studies. The next allocation contest leaves the cadastre. The guest list is the product.
Congo's regulator hit every major mining book as the US-DRC Strategic Partnership stalled: no Geneva communiqué, a Lobito misattribution, a weak bond sale.
The State Department's 2026 assessment and the enforcement file now describe two different countries. The gap between them is the risk investors are not pricing.
A Congolese refinery with no mine now has a U.S. study grant. First metal still depends on feed, power, and a quota Kinshasa hands out at its discretion.
The partnership is producing transactions faster than institutions. A reserve commitment, a corridor power study, a delisting. The commercial steering body has met once. The reform clock runs to early December. The only public description of a one-stop shop is an unpromulgated, source-level sketch that names Sicomines.
The treaty said explore a coordinated stockpile on Congolese soil. This week EXIM hired Glencore to fill an American one. Mercuria wrote $500 million next to it. That is not delivery. That is a relocation.
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