Analysis
Briefs, updates and political-risk notes on the US-DRC Strategic Partnership. Published weekly. Open pieces are free; subscriber briefs show a preview.
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Analysis 2 Oct 2026
US-DRC SPA Intelligence Brief | 2 October 2026
Congo's regulator hit every major mining book as the US-DRC Strategic Partnership stalled: no Geneva communiqué, a Lobito misattribution, a weak bond sale.
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Update 1 Oct 2026
Washington Is Still Reciting April. The DRC Has Moved On.
The State Department's 2026 assessment and the enforcement file now describe two different countries. The gap between them is the risk investors are not pricing.
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Update 27 Sep 2026
Three Septembers in New York
A Congolese refinery with no mine now has a U.S. study grant. First metal still depends on feed, power, and a quota Kinshasa hands out at…
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Analysis 25 Sep 2026
US-DRC SPA Intelligence Brief | 25 September 2026
The partnership is producing transactions faster than institutions. A reserve commitment, a corridor power study, a delisting. The commercial steering body has met once. The reform…
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Update 24 Sep 2026
The US-DRC SPA’s Article XI Put the Reserve in Congo. VaultCo Put It in Ohio.
The treaty said explore a coordinated stockpile on Congolese soil. This week EXIM hired Glencore to fill an American one. Mercuria wrote $500 million next to…
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analysis note 20 Sep 2026
A Reported 35 to 40 Percent at Matadi Gateway Keeps Kabila Below OFAC’s 50 Percent Rule. That Is the Exposure
Below the threshold is not outside the exposure. Four months after the Kabila designation, Matadi Gateway has three shareholding versions, a state representative nobody can trace,…
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Analysis 20 Sep 2026
Glencore and Orion in Washington. Executing Was the Panel Title, Not the Transaction Status.
Seven months after the photograph, the document is still non-binding. And on the ownership figures already on the record, the transaction does something to Kamoto that…
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Update 18 Sep 2026
The Man Kinshasa Kept on the Gold Tap Now Supplies the Central Bank
On 11 September a presidential ordinance reconducted Joseph Kazibaziba as director general of the state gold trader. Since February that company has been the declared upstream…
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Update 17 Sep 2026
Kinshasa Now Has a Board for the Partnership. The Board That Can Move Money Has Met Once
A draft decree creating the Congolese task force was taken by the Council of Ministers on 11 September. It is being read as the partnership entering…
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Update 14 Sep 2026
Chemaf Is a Restructuring Wearing a Flag, and Four Books Should Already Be Marking It That Way
Washington still calls Chemaf its flagship investment in Congo. Five and a half months after a USD 30 million equity close, Etoile had not restarted as…
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Update 11 Sep 2026
The Factory Floor Offer: How DRC’s Mines Minister Courted Beijing Without Selling It a Mine
For eleven months, Louis Watum Kabamba has made Chinese capital the same proposal in three cities: come to Kolwezi, build processing plants, obey the Mining Code.…
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Update 11 Sep 2026
9/11: Twenty-Five Years After, Can the DRC Help America Fight Terror as It Supported Its Previous Major World Engagements?
The uranium was Congolese. The war on terror's newest front should be too.
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