Analysis
Briefs, updates and political-risk notes on the US-DRC Strategic Partnership. Published weekly. Open pieces are free; subscriber briefs show a preview.
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analysis note 20 Sep 2026
A Reported 35 to 40 Percent at Matadi Gateway Keeps Kabila Below OFAC’s 50 Percent Rule. That Is the Exposure
Below the threshold is not outside the exposure. Four months after the Kabila designation, Matadi Gateway has three shareholding versions, a state representative nobody can trace,…
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Analysis 20 Sep 2026
Glencore and Orion in Washington. Executing Was the Panel Title, Not the Transaction Status.
Seven months after the photograph, the document is still non-binding. And on the ownership figures already on the record, the transaction does something to Kamoto that…
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Update 18 Sep 2026
The Man Kinshasa Kept on the Gold Tap Now Supplies the Central Bank
On 11 September a presidential ordinance reconducted Joseph Kazibaziba as director general of the state gold trader. Since February that company has been the declared upstream…
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Update 17 Sep 2026
Kinshasa Now Has a Board for the Partnership. The Board That Can Move Money Has Met Once
A draft decree creating the Congolese task force was taken by the Council of Ministers on 11 September. It is being read as the partnership entering…
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Update 14 Sep 2026
Chemaf Is a Restructuring Wearing a Flag, and Four Books Should Already Be Marking It That Way
Washington still calls Chemaf its flagship investment in Congo. Five and a half months after a USD 30 million equity close, Etoile had not restarted as…
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Update 11 Sep 2026
The Factory Floor Offer: How DRC’s Mines Minister Courted Beijing Without Selling It a Mine
For eleven months, Louis Watum Kabamba has made Chinese capital the same proposal in three cities: come to Kolwezi, build processing plants, obey the Mining Code.…
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Update 11 Sep 2026
9/11: Twenty-Five Years After, Can the DRC Help America Fight Terror as It Supported Its Previous Major World Engagements?
The uranium was Congolese. The war on terror's newest front should be too.
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Update 8 Sep 2026
The Washington Roster: Twelve Agencies Work the Congo. One Can Award a Mine. It Has Met Once.
The money moves through three doors. The decisions wait behind one. Every US institution on the Congo, what each controls, and how to position for what…
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Update 5 Sep 2026
The Quota Was Supposed to Squeeze Them. They Posted Records.
Chinese operators kept mining cobalt, stopped selling it, and poured everything into copper. Six months on they are richer, more liquid, and holding the tonnes the…
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Analysis 4 Sep 2026
US-DRC SPA Intelligence Brief | September 4, 2026
Alert level: Elevated on the constitutional track. The treaty has entered the mandate fight.
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Update 3 Sep 2026
One Word, Four Instruments: Why “Strategic Reserve” Now Means Different Things in the Congo, and What That Is Worth
An investor can hold a treaty-backed first claim on a Congolese asset and still lose the tonnes it produces. Nothing in either instrument says which claim…
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Update 1 Sep 2026
He Skipped Kinshasa. That’s Not the Story. The Story Is What He’s Selling Everywhere Else.
America's new Africa envoy is on his second tour of the continent, and the deal his pitch is built on isn't on the itinerary. The omission…
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