Registers · SPA Obligations · Professional

Regulatory Reform Tracker

Every SPA obligation, both parties, held to the treaty text, clause by clause.

ASSET AS-REF CLASS Tracker VERSION v2.0 BASIS Bilateral, 29 obligations, 12 articles LAST UPDATED 16 July 2026 NEXT SCHEDULED REVIEW Q3 2026

Reading of Record

The DRC is delivering fiscal reform, but not the SPA's fiscal reform. Against Article XII's six named obligations, squarely delivered is zero of six. Kinshasa is reforming on its own agenda (IS and IRPP effective 1 Jan 2026; a Law 14/005 amendment tabled 3 Jul 2026), not the treaty's list.

The one binding US obligation, Article XIV technical assistance, is undeployed, and it is the capacity-building the DRC needs to reform on-spec. The treaty binds Kinshasa to dated statutory change and binds Washington mostly to best-efforts financing with no deadlines. The fair sentence is not that the DRC is behind; it is that the DRC is reforming off-spec while the US has not delivered the one thing that would help it reform on-spec.

Vitals

Article XII, delivered as written

0 / 6

fiscal reform active but off-spec

US binding obligation (Art XIV)

UNDEPLOYED

upstream of DRC delivery

Literal deadline (from EIF)

4 DEC 2026

calculating

Domestic deadline

~ MID 2027

anchors to promulgation, pending

The Clock

Literal reading

12 months from entry into force (4 Dec 2025). Deadline 4 December 2026. Client-advisory default.

Domestic reading

12 months from promulgation of the ratification law. Promulgation pending as of 16 Jul 2026. Deadline approximately mid 2027.

Ratification path

Bills submitted 7 Mar 2026. National Assembly recevabilite 346-7-2 of 355 (13 Apr), final adoption 27 Apr. Senate 76 yes of 109 (19 May). Promulgation pending.

Filter by verdict

Article XII, The Crux

Clause	Obligation (DRC, 12-month clock)	Verified-operative reality	Verdict	Conf.
OB-XII-1	10-year renewable fiscal stabilization clause	Mining Code offers only a 5-year clause (cut from 10 in 2018). No SPA-grade clause enacted.	Not started	MED-HIGH
OB-XII-2	90-day binding VAT reimbursement • probe T3	Finance Law 25/060 (promulgated) carries e-invoicing and group changes, not a binding 90-day refund.	Not started	MED-HIGH
OB-XII-3	VAT offset mechanisms	Possibly touched by DGI 2026 changes; not confirmed.	Unverified	LOW
OB-XII-4	Simplified VAT documentation	E-invoicing (E-DEF) modernizes but does not obviously simplify.	Partial	LOW
OB-XII-5	Guichet Unique (ANAPI single window)	ANAPI window pre-exists (2002). The 3 Jul 2026 Law 14/005 bill adds a convention-revenue guichet unique, tabled not enacted. Neither is the SPA cross-cutting single window.	Framework	MED-HIGH
OB-XII-6	Centralized corporate tax authority for mining	The IS reform lets miners opt into common-law IS or stay under the Code. Not a centralized mining tax authority.	Not started	MEDIUM

Verdict: 0 of 6 delivered as written, confirmed against the promulgated Finance Law 25/060 and the tabled Law 14/005 bill. Fiscal reform is in motion but off-spec. Load-bearing: the entire SPA fiscal-predictability promise sits here.

Bilateral Obligation Matrix

DRC obligations

OB / Art	Obligation	Trigger	Verified-operative reality	Verdict	Conf.
OB-V-1 · V	Initial Designated Strategic Projects list	30 days	Delivered Jan 2026, on time.	Delivered	HIGH
OB-IV-1 · IV	Initial SAR list • probe T2	30 days	Shortlist presented at the 5 Feb JSC, but Manono is on it despite ICSID and ICC encumbrance; the clean bar is not met at list level. See the SAR Registry.	Delivered, contested	MEDIUM
OB-IV-2 / VII-1 · IV/VII	First clean SAR designation, verified unencumbered title • LB	Per designation	Chemaf/Virtus approved as first concrete transaction, but on leased Gecamines permits with roughly $900M debt; not a clean Article IV designation.	In progress	MEDIUM
OB-XIII-1 · XIII	Review SOE beneficial ownership and leadership • LB, probes T1 T5	Standing	Gecamines board purge 24 Feb; Sicomines audit launched 5 Mar; Law 14/005 amendment tabled 3 Jul; a 70 percent Sicomines target stated with no formal instrument.	In progress	MED-HIGH
OB-XV-1 · XV	ASM formalization via EGC	Standing	EGC pivot active: ERG MoU Feb 2026, Trafigura offtake, EVelution channel.	In progress	MED-HIGH
OB-IX-1 · IX	Modernize SNCC rail, Dilolo to Sakania	Standing	Corridor runs under 5 percent capacity; emergency works underway.	In progress, weak	MEDIUM
OB-IX-2 · IX	Route >=50% Cu, >=90% Zn, >=30% Co via Lobito	5 years	Routing far below thresholds; will collide with Chinese offtake and eastbound flows.	Not due (2030)	MEDIUM
OB-XI-2 · XI	Right of first offer on SAR/QSP minerals to US market	Standing	Mechanism on paper; no confirmed operative ROFO exercised.	Framework	LOW
OB-XII-7 · XII	Notify US of ARECOMS quota changes; quarterly briefings	Per change	ARECOMS active (10 Apr decree, 96,600t quota); treaty-notice compliance not public.	Unverified	LOW
OB-VIII-1 · VIII	Inform JSC of additional incentives per QSP	12 months	Not confirmed.	Unverified	LOW
OB-VIII-2 · VIII	Non-aligned equity caps, 40 to 30 to 20 to 10 percent	Yr 5/10/20	First step falls 2030.	Not due	HIGH
OB-XI-1 · XI	Establish the Strategic Minerals Reserve	No deadline	No confirmation the reserve is established.	Unverified	LOW
OB-XIV-1 · XIV	Prioritize judicial and anti-corruption reforms	Standing	No SPA-attributable judicial reform identified.	Unverified	LOW
OB-III-1 · III	Inaugural BEPF date and location	365 days	No date confirmed selected.	Not due, unverified	LOW

US obligations (best-efforts vocabulary)

OB / Art	Obligation	Character	Verified-operative reality	Verdict	Conf.
OB-XIV-US · XIV	Technical assistance, 7 areas • LB	Concrete	The single most consequential gap. No TA program stood up; a Dynamic Aviation mineral-mapping proposal is a signal, not deployment.	Undeployed	HIGH
OB-IX-US · IX	Mobilize Lobito Corridor financing	Best-efforts	DFC and DBSA $753M facility, Dec 2025.	Mobilizing	MED-HIGH
OB-V-US / XI-US · V/XI	Mobilize project and mineral finance	Best-efforts	Project Vault $12B announced, Pax Silica $250M seed, OSC and DoD $984M; DRC-directed disbursement limited.	Mobilizing	MEDIUM
OB-VII-US / V-US2 · VII/V	Operate the US-person right of first offer and preferential access	US-operated	Exercised in practice around Chemaf/Virtus (as change of control).	Operating	MEDIUM
OB-X-US · X	Mobilize Grand Inga capital	Best-efforts	No confirmed US Inga financing motion.	Stalled, unverified	LOW

Joint obligations

OB / Art	Obligation	Cadence	Verified-operative reality	Verdict	Conf.
OB-VI-J1 · VI	Establish and run the JSC, twice yearly	Recurring	Inaugural meeting 5 Feb 2026; second-half meeting to confirm.	On track	MED-HIGH
OB-VI-J2 · VI	Develop SAR offtake guidelines	JSC output	Treaty text implies not yet adopted.	Unverified	LOW
OB-X-J · X	Grand Inga Coordination and Governance Committee	One-time	Checked: not established as an SPA bilateral body. National ADPI/ADEPI agency plus World Bank PDI3 exist, not the Article X committee.	Not established	LOW
OB-XVIII-1 · XVIII	JSC joint implementation review	Every 3 yrs	First due 2028.	Not due	HIGH

Verdict vocabulary is bearer-specific. DRC and dated obligations: delivered / framework / partial / in progress / not started / not due. US best-efforts obligations: mobilizing / operating / stalled / undeployed. LB marks a load-bearing obligation. Dashed badge marks an unverified row.

Verification (closed, 15 Jul deep pass)

Article XII fiscal texts confirmed. Finance Law 25/060 (promulgated) carries no 90-day VAT and no stabilization clause; the 3 Jul Law 14/005 bill creates a convention-revenue guichet (GURCC), tabled not enacted. Zero of six as written stands on primary sources.
Grand Inga committee checked, not established as an SPA bilateral body. What exists is the national ADPI/ADEPI agency plus World Bank PDI3 and a France MoU.
Strategic Minerals Reserve checked, no public confirmation of establishment.
JSC offtake guidelines checked, no public confirmation of adoption.
BEPF not due; no date or location confirmed selected.
ARECOMS notice compliance is non-public; not confirmable.
27 April count not publicly reported. Verified: recevabilite 346-7-2 of 355 (13 Apr), Senate 76 yes of 109 (19 May). The 370/371 figure was a conflation with a separate 6 Jul batch, dropped.

Establishment rows now read "checked, not established," a stronger statement than an open gap. The SPA institutional build-out beyond the JSC and the two initial lists is largely not yet stood up.

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