European Energy Security After the Russian Cutoff: A Two-Year Assessment
LNG substitution has bought time — but new strategic dependencies are forming.
European energy security has structurally changed following the Russian supply cutoff. LNG imports from the U.S. and Qatar now cover the gap, but analysts at Ascendance assess that Europe has traded one dependency for a set of new ones with their own geopolitical strings attached.
The severance of Russian pipeline gas to Europe represents the most significant energy supply disruption in the continent’s post-war history. Two years on, the restructuring of European energy infrastructure — LNG terminal buildouts, renewable acceleration, and demand destruction — has stabilised immediate supply, but introduced new structural dependencies and geopolitical asymmetries.
This brief maps current exposure vectors and projects resilience trajectories through 2026.